Publications of Harris, M.N.

Harris MN, Mátyás L, Sevestre P. Dynamic models for short panels. In: Mátyás L, Sevestre P, editors. The econometrics of panel data : fundamentals and recent developments in theory and practice. Berlin: Springer; 2008. p. 249-78.
Gillman M, Harris MN, Máyás L. Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effectt. In: ed Baltagi BH, editor. Panel data: Theory and applications. Heidelberg and New York: Physica; 2004. p. 149-67. (Studies in Empirical Economics.).

Inflation and growth: Explaining a negative effect

The paper presents a monetary model of endogenous growth and specifies an econometric model consistent with it. The economic model suggests a negative inflation-growth effect, and one that is stronger at lower levels of inflation. Empirical evaluation of the model is based on a large panel of OECD and APEC member countries over the years 1961–1997. The hypothesized negative inflation effect is found comprehensively for the OECD countries to be significant and, as in the theory, to increase marginally as the inflation rate falls. For APEC countries, the results from using instrumental variables also show significant evidence of a similar behavior. The nature of the inflation-growth profile and differences in this between the regions are interpreted with the credit production technology of the model in a way not possible with a standard cash-only economy.

Modelling export activity of eleven APEC countries, 1978-97

The gravity model has long been used for modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cycle. The new approach is based on a panel data framework (instead of a simple cross sectional or time series approach) where the additional information available from using both types of data (i.e. cross sectional and time series) is utilised to properly model all the specific effects. The model is applied to a panel of APEC countries.

Modelling the impact of environmental regulations on bilateral trade flows: OECD, 1990-1996

Since the early seventies an increasing attention has been paid to the impact environmental polict nmight have on foreign trade. One of the most important issues is whether countries with relatively strict environmental regulations tend to experience a deterioration of international competitiveness and thus a fall in exports and a rise in imports, of the pollution-intensive commodities or, on the other hand, benefit from the improvement in environmentally more sensitive industries. So far, most empirical studies have concluded that the proportion of environmental costs to the total production costs is still so marginal that environmental policies have hardly any effect on comparative advantage patterns and thus on foreign trade. One of the few exceptions is Van Beers and Van den Bergh (1997), who found that stricter regulations have some negative impact on bilateral trade flows between OECD countries. The aim of this paper is to show that tyhis outcome is partly due to model mis-specification. The analysis id based on a triple indexed model and on its variants. It is found that, as soon as both the importing and exporting country specific effects are taken into consideration, the relationship between stricter regulations and foreign trade becomes statistically insignificant. This suggests that environmental costs do not have a real impact, neither negative nor positive, on foreign trade.

Modelling Export Flows in the APEC Region: Static and Dynamic Gravity Model Approaches

This paper reviews recent developments in the econometric methodology of gravity models and suggests an extension to the so-called Triple-Indexed Gravity model, which accounts for the fact that contemporaneous trade flows are likely to be strongly related to previous ones. All of the various models and methods are then illustrated with an application to export flows in the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation region. Important explanatory variables were found to be domestic and target country Gross Domestic Product, domestic and foreign population, the real exchange rate, foreign currency reserves and the distance between the importing and exporting countries.

The negative inflation-growth effect: theory and evidence

The paper presents a monetary model of endogenous growth and specifies an econometric model consistent with it. The economic model suggests a negative inflation-growth effect, and one that is stronger at lower levels of inflation. Empirical evaluation of the model is based on a large panel of OECD and APEC member countries over the years 1961-1997. The hypothesized negative inflation effect is found comprehensively for the OECD countries to be significant and, as in the theory, to increase marginally as the inflation rate falls. For APEC countries, the results from using instrumental variables also show significant evidence of a similar behavior.

Performance of the operational Wansbeek-Bekker estimator for dynamic panel data models.

Wansbeek and Bekker considered a new estimator for simple dynamic panel data models (where there are no exogenous variables) which involved a complex weighting matrix. An operational variant of this estimator is proposed which is applicable to the more realistic case where there are exogenous variables. Also proposed is an easy-to-compute approximation to the weighting matrix. The performance of this (these) new estimator(s) is examined, revealing very desirable small sample properties in a wide range of situations that the applied researcher is likely to encounter, especially in moderate time series length panels

Modelling export activity of eleven APEC countries

The gravity model has long been used for modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cycle. The new approach is based on a panel data framework (instead of a simple cross sectional or time series approach) where the additional information available from using both types of dat a (i. e. cross sectional and time series) is utilised to properly model all the specific effects. The model is applied to a panel of APEC countries.

Modelling the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Bilateral Trade Flows: OECD, 1990-1996

Since the early seventies an increasing attention has been paid to the impact environmental policy has on foreign trade. One of the most important issues is whether countries with relatively strict environmental regulat ions tend to experience a deterioration of international competitiveness and thus a fall in the exports, and a rise in the imports, of t he pollution-intensive commodities or, on the other hand, benefit from the improvement in environmental quality and are likely to develop new comparative advantages in the environmentally more sensitive industries. So far, most empirical studies have concluded that the proportion of environmental costs to the total production costs is still so marginal that environmental policies have hardly any effect on comparative advantage patterns and thus on foreign trade. One of the few exceptions is Van Beers and Van den Bergh (1997), who found that stricter regulat ions have some negative impact on bilateral trade flows between OECD countries. The aim of this paper is to show that t his outcome is part ly due to model mis-specification. The analysis is based on a triple indexed fixed-effects model and on its variant's. It is found that, as so on as both t he importing and exporting country specific effects are taken into consideration, the relationship between stricter regulations and foreign trade becomes statist ically insignificant. This suggests that environmental costs do not have a real impact, neither negative nor positive, on foreign trade.

Performance of the operational Wansbeek-Bekker estimator for dynamic panel data models.

Wansbeek and Bekker (1996) considered a new estimator for simple dynamic panel data models (where there are no exogenous variables) which involved a complex weighting matrix. In this paper we propose an operational variant of this estimator which is applicable to the more realistic case where there are exogenous variables. We also propose an easy-to-compute approximation to the weighting matrix. The performance of this (these) new estimator(s) is examined, revealing very desirable small sample properties in a wide range of situations that the applied

The econometrics of gravity models

Gravity type models have often been used to analyse trade flows between countries and trading blocs. Previously however, these models were only applied to either cross-section data, or to single country time-series data, which imposed severe explicit (or implicit) restrictions on the specification of the model. Recently Gravity models have been generalised and adapted to a panel data setting, where several time-series of cross-section data sets were pooled. This approach not only increases the degrees of freedom, it also enables the proper specification of source and target country effects and time (or business cycle) effects. In this paper, we review in a unified framework, the recent developments in the econometric methodology of Gravity models, and refine the estimation techniques to account for any possible simultaneity bias. Although a fully specified fixed effects Gravity model has been estimated previously, this paper contains the first ever results of its random effects counterpart. We also suggest an extension to the basic model, which accounts for the fact that contemporaneous trade flows are likely to be strongly related to previous ones. Once more, this appears to be the first application of such a model in the literature. Finally, all of these various models and methods are illustrated with an application to export flows in the APEC region. The results clearly suggest that it is important to properly specify the model, in terms of source, target and business cycle effects. If this is not the case, policies could be instigated that do not take into account, for example, that some countries have 'naturally' higher propensities to import than others. Moreover, if these effects are not properly specified the affect of other important driving factors, e.g. population will be wrongly estimated. In both cases, policy will be misguided. Important explanatory variables are found to be domestic and target country GDP, and dependent upon specification, local and domestic population, the exchange rate and foreign currency reserves. Also, there is strong evidence that current export flows are highly correlated with those of the previous year.Downloads: PDF format (65K)

Modelling export activity in a multicountry economic area : the APEC case

The gravity model has long been used fro modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cyles.

A comparative analysis of different estimatiors for dynamic panel data mModels

In this paper two new estimators are offred (one each for the fixed random effects specifications), and small sample performance compared with that of all the existing estimators.

The robustness of estimators for dynamic panel data models to misspecification

It is well known that the usual techniques for estimating random and fixed effects panel data models are inconsistent in the dynamic setting. As a consequence, numerous consistent estimators have been proposed in the literature. However, all such estimators rely on certain well defined assumption, which in practice my be violated.The purpose of this paper is to ascertain how robust the available estimators are to such misspecifications, thus providing guidance to applied researcher as to an appropriate choice of estimator in such situation.