Publications of Kónya, L.

Modelling export activity of eleven APEC countries, 1978-97

The gravity model has long been used for modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cycle. The new approach is based on a panel data framework (instead of a simple cross sectional or time series approach) where the additional information available from using both types of data (i.e. cross sectional and time series) is utilised to properly model all the specific effects. The model is applied to a panel of APEC countries.

Modelling the impact of environmental regulations on bilateral trade flows: OECD, 1990-1996

Since the early seventies an increasing attention has been paid to the impact environmental polict nmight have on foreign trade. One of the most important issues is whether countries with relatively strict environmental regulations tend to experience a deterioration of international competitiveness and thus a fall in exports and a rise in imports, of the pollution-intensive commodities or, on the other hand, benefit from the improvement in environmentally more sensitive industries. So far, most empirical studies have concluded that the proportion of environmental costs to the total production costs is still so marginal that environmental policies have hardly any effect on comparative advantage patterns and thus on foreign trade. One of the few exceptions is Van Beers and Van den Bergh (1997), who found that stricter regulations have some negative impact on bilateral trade flows between OECD countries. The aim of this paper is to show that tyhis outcome is partly due to model mis-specification. The analysis id based on a triple indexed model and on its variants. It is found that, as soon as both the importing and exporting country specific effects are taken into consideration, the relationship between stricter regulations and foreign trade becomes statistically insignificant. This suggests that environmental costs do not have a real impact, neither negative nor positive, on foreign trade.

Modelling the Impact of Environmental Regulations on Bilateral Trade Flows: OECD, 1990-1996

Since the early seventies an increasing attention has been paid to the impact environmental policy has on foreign trade. One of the most important issues is whether countries with relatively strict environmental regulat ions tend to experience a deterioration of international competitiveness and thus a fall in the exports, and a rise in the imports, of t he pollution-intensive commodities or, on the other hand, benefit from the improvement in environmental quality and are likely to develop new comparative advantages in the environmentally more sensitive industries. So far, most empirical studies have concluded that the proportion of environmental costs to the total production costs is still so marginal that environmental policies have hardly any effect on comparative advantage patterns and thus on foreign trade. One of the few exceptions is Van Beers and Van den Bergh (1997), who found that stricter regulat ions have some negative impact on bilateral trade flows between OECD countries. The aim of this paper is to show that t his outcome is part ly due to model mis-specification. The analysis is based on a triple indexed fixed-effects model and on its variant's. It is found that, as so on as both t he importing and exporting country specific effects are taken into consideration, the relationship between stricter regulations and foreign trade becomes statist ically insignificant. This suggests that environmental costs do not have a real impact, neither negative nor positive, on foreign trade.

Modelling export activity of eleven APEC countries

The gravity model has long been used for modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cycle. The new approach is based on a panel data framework (instead of a simple cross sectional or time series approach) where the additional information available from using both types of dat a (i. e. cross sectional and time series) is utilised to properly model all the specific effects. The model is applied to a panel of APEC countries.

Modelling export activity in a multicountry economic area : the APEC case

The gravity model has long been used fro modelling and predicting trade flows. This paper generalises the gravity model allowing for proper representation of local and target country effects and also the business cyles.

The Kuznets U-Curve hypothesis: some panel data evidence

In this paper Kuznets' U-Curve hypothesis is tested on two unbalanced panel data sets of 47 and 62 countries, for the period 1970-93, using two-way fixed and random effects models. Several competing model specifications are estimated and the one best fitting the data is selected by appropriate model selection procedures.